Question juridique clé
Whether the refusal of conditional release under Art. 86 para. 1 CP was unlawful because the prognosis for future conduct was not negative.
Solution extraite
The cantonal court did not abuse its discretion in finding a negative prognosis and refusing conditional release.
Motifs extraits
The prisoner minimized his offences, showed little introspection or remorse, denied culpability, and had no concrete reintegration plan outside Switzerland; these factors justified a risk of recidivism despite favorable prison reports.