Question juridique clé
Whether the refusal of conditional release under Art. 38 ch. 1 al. 1 CP was lawful.
Solution extraite
The refusal could not stand because the authorities conducted an insufficient assessment of the future prognosis and the file was incomplete.
Motifs extraits
The court held that the risk of reoffending must be assessed globally and concretely. It found that the cantonal authority relied too heavily on an old expert report, did not sufficiently consider changed circumstances, did not properly address the possible effect of a supervised release with patronage and rules of conduct, and should have obtained the CIC opinion sooner.